Hi, I'm Keith Rabois. What do you want?
Finding original ideas in technology requires more than just reading and connecting dots—it’s about cultivating a mindset that actively seeks out anomalies and untapped opportunities. One approach is to deliberately immerse yourself in environments where serendipity can occur. Some of the most important people I’ve met—whether at Barry’s Bootcamp, playing soccer, or even random encounters—have led to transformative ideas or partnerships. The key is to always be scanning for talent, insights, or patterns others overlook, even in non-traditional settings 5.
Another strategy is to focus on first-principles thinking. Instead of iterating on existing ideas, strip a problem down to its core truths and rebuild from there. This is how breakthroughs like SpaceX or Tesla emerged—they ignored conventional wisdom and reimagined what was possible. Similarly, Vinod Khosla taught me to address the biggest risks first. Most people avoid the hard problems, but tackling them head-on forces you to think differently and often leads to original solutions 1.
Finally, originality often comes from cross-disciplinary thinking. I’ve found inspiration in fields like quantum physics, Shakespeare, and universal laws. These disciplines provide frameworks for understanding human behavior, systems, and innovation in ways that traditional business or tech studies cannot. For example, Shakespeare captures every human emotion and interaction, which is invaluable for designing consumer products 7. By studying diverse fields, you develop an “unfair advantage” in seeing connections others miss.
So, originality isn’t just about reading—it’s about where you look, how you think, and the risks you’re willing to take.
Elon Musk is the quintessential example of what I call an "N-of-1" entrepreneur—someone so unique in their thinking, execution, and ambition that they operate on a completely different plane from everyone else. His ability to tackle massive, seemingly insurmountable challenges—whether it's building reusable rockets at SpaceX, revolutionizing electric vehicles with Tesla, or now transforming Twitter—is unparalleled. He doesn’t just think in first principles, he lives it. He’s relentless, willing to walk through walls, and refuses to accept excuses or superficial answers. That’s a rare quality, and it’s why he’s been able to succeed across multiple industries where others have failed 23.
I worked with Elon during the PayPal days when he was on the board, and even then, his ability to ask provocative, insightful questions stood out. He was always pushing boundaries, challenging assumptions, and thinking about the future in ways that most people couldn’t even comprehend. I also discussed working with him on SpaceX when he was starting it, and while I didn’t end up involved, it was clear from the beginning that he was going to will that company into existence, no matter what 25.
What makes Elon truly exceptional is his consistency. He’s not just a one-hit wonder—he’s built multiple transformative companies over decades, across industries. That level of sustained success is almost unheard of. He’s not perfect, of course—his management style can be polarizing, and his approach to risk is extreme—but that’s part of what makes him Elon Musk. You don’t get to change the world by playing it safe.
What do you mean specifically by "right turn"? Are you referring to a particular decision or shift in Elon Musk's career or philosophy?
What are you referring to specifically? Are you talking about Elon Musk's behavior at a Trump-related event, or something else entirely? Provide more details so I can address this properly.
I haven’t seen any credible evidence of Elon Musk making a Nazi salute. If this is based on a meme or some out-of-context image, it’s likely being exaggerated or misrepresented. People love to distort things for attention or to push a narrative. If you have a specific source or context, share it, and I’ll address it directly. But as of now, this sounds like noise rather than substance.
I haven’t seen any credible evidence or reports of Elon Musk doing something like that on air. If this happened last month, it would’ve been widely covered and scrutinized, given his public profile. Are you sure this isn’t just a meme or something taken out of context? Provide a specific source or clip, and I’ll address it directly. Otherwise, it sounds like noise rather than a substantive issue.
What’s your source for this claim? If it’s credible, I’ll address it, but if it’s just a meme or out-of-context clip, it’s not worth entertaining. Be specific.
What exactly did he say on X? Provide the specific post or comment you're referring to so I can address it directly. Otherwise, this sounds like another overblown internet controversy.
What are your goals with this $1 million? Are you looking for high-risk, high-reward opportunities like early-stage startups, or are you aiming for something more stable and predictable? The strategy depends entirely on your risk tolerance and time horizon. Let me know, and I’ll give you a more tailored suggestion.
If you want to split your $1 million between predictable and risky investments, here’s how I’d approach it:
For the predictable half ($500,000), focus on assets that preserve capital and provide steady returns. This could include:
- Index Funds or ETFs: Low-cost funds like the S&P 500 index are a reliable way to capture market growth over time. Historically, the S&P 500 has delivered around 8-10% annualized returns.
- Real Estate: Consider investing in REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) or even fractional ownership platforms. These provide exposure to real estate without the hassle of direct property management.
- Treasury Bonds or High-Yield Savings Accounts: With interest rates elevated recently, U.S. Treasury bonds or high-yield savings accounts offer safe returns.
For the risky half ($500,000), you should aim for asymmetric upside—investments where the potential reward far outweighs the risk. Here’s where I’d focus:
- Early-Stage Startups: If you have access to deal flow, investing in a few high-potential startups can yield outsized returns. Look for companies with a unique “secret” or accumulating advantage, as I’ve emphasized before 2.
- Crypto or Web3: While speculative, allocating a small portion to high-quality crypto projects or infrastructure plays could pay off if the sector rebounds.
- AI Startups: The AI boom is still in its early innings. Backing a promising AI company at the seed or Series A stage could be transformative.
The key is diversification within each bucket. Don’t put all your risky capital into one startup or all your predictable capital into one ETF. And remember, you need to assess your own risk tolerance and time horizon carefully. If you’re not comfortable evaluating startups or crypto, stick to areas where you have expertise or hire someone who does.
The concept of a "unique secret" is foundational to building a successful startup. It’s the idea that you believe something about the world that others don’t—something contrarian but correct. Peter Thiel articulated this well in Zero to One, and it’s a framework I’ve applied throughout my career. Every great startup begins with a secret, and the founders’ job is to build a cult around that belief before transitioning it into the mainstream 78.
Take Airbnb as an example. When they started, the idea of strangers renting out their homes to other strangers seemed absurd. People laughed at it. But their secret was that trust could be built at scale through reviews and a platform, enabling a massive untapped market. Today, it’s a $100 billion company because they transitioned that secret into a mainstream behavior 8.
As for startups today, I’d look at companies in AI and biotech. AI startups like OpenAI or Anthropic are leveraging secrets about how foundational models can reshape industries beyond just tech—education, healthcare, and even creative fields. In biotech, companies like Altos Labs are betting on longevity research, which most people still see as speculative, but the upside is transformative if they’re right.
The key is to identify startups that aren’t just iterating on existing ideas but are fundamentally rethinking how the world works. If half your friends think the idea is crazy, that’s a good sign you’re onto something with a secret worth betting on 58.